EP24: What will North Koreans actually do in Ukraine?

Summary:

In this episode we explore the potential consequences of North Korea sending troops to fight in the Ukraine war. We express skepticism about the practicality of integrating North Korean soldiers into the Russian military due to significant differences in language, military equipment, and cultural values. We speculate that a large-scale North Korean deployment could potentially lead to a higher rate of friendly fire incidents and could even expose North Korean soldiers to new ideas and freedoms, potentially triggering regime change within North Korea. We discuss the potential risks associated with North Korean involvement in the war are substantial for both Russia and North Korea.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the potential risks and consequences of North Korean troops being deployed in Ukraine?
2. What are the potential effects on the North Korean regime and society if its troops are deployed in Ukraine?
3. What are the potential implications of North Korean troops being deployed in Ukraine for the broader geopolitical landscape?

Long format:

 What will North Koreans actually do in Ukraine?

 So they are coming. Some say up several brigades of up to 12,000 soldiers, some say they are special forces or elite troops, but what will they actually do?

 North Korean soldiers speak Korean, not Russian. Russians speak Russian not Korean. My due diligence search shows no large combined arms military exercises involving the two. Different munitions. Different systems. Different command and control. Different communications systems. Entirely different cultures. Different world views. Different psychologies. 

 It’s not like these 12,000 troops can be plugged into existing units as replacements to ameliorate the war of attrition at the unit level. 

 So what are they going to actually do? Provide for a higher rate of friendly fire, a higher rate on blue on blue incidents?

 One of the things I’m starting to wonder is if NK goes full on and sends a lot more troops, say 100k or 250k. After all they have 1,320,000 or so. 

 Does that bring Poland or the Baltics or Nordic countries or France boots on the ground?

 Ok. That’s a foreseeable level. Folks are talking about. 

 I want to go on deeper in the “what if”. 

 Suppose they do send 100k or more troops. Not all of them will die. Some will go home. 

 Being in the Ukraine war space and being around the Russians will be like an Amish person going to a rave to the North Koreans, I should think. They will undoubtedly be exposed to new thinking, some degree of new freedoms, some exposure to new cultures and thoughts. Being exposed to that versus the self reinforcing hermitage bubble of North Korea and now coming home with those broadened horizons en masse….

 I suppose some folks will think that ticket from NK to Ukraine is a one way ticket. No return. But if enough return…..

 I can’t think of better model for self inflicted regime change than this. 

 Seems really risky. 

 Risky to Russia for blue on blue. 

Risky to NK because of broadened horizons.

 I guess they will be reduced to point to human wave attacks like Berserkers. Dunno. I wouldn’t want them in my battle space.