Wednesday Nov 13, 2024

EP78:The Arctic A New Frontier for Geopolitical Competition

Summary:

In this episode, we discuss the growing geopolitical significance of the Arctic due to climate change. Melting ice is opening up new shipping routes and revealing valuable resources, attracting the interest of nations like Russia, the United States, and Canada. This competition, however, is tempered by existing frameworks like the Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration, which promote cooperation. We also explores the potential for economic growth through resource extraction and the development of new shipping routes, including the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, known collectively as the Polar Silk Road. The article ultimately raises concerns about potential conflict arising from competing claims and military expansion while emphasizing the need for international cooperation in managing the evolving Arctic landscape.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

What are the key geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges facing the Arctic region as it opens up to increased resource extraction and shipping routes?
How do the competing claims to the Arctic's resources and territorial waters influence global security and cooperation in the region?
What are the major institutional and legal frameworks currently in place for managing the Arctic, and how effective are they in balancing competing national interests and global concerns?

Long format:

The Arctic: A New Frontier for Geopolitical Competition

By Justin James McShane

Today we look at the increasing interest in the Arctic due to climate change revealing new resource opportunities and shipping routes. We will discuss the territorial claims by Russia, the U.S., Canada, and other nations, and the potential for conflict or cooperation.

TL;DR:

Climate change is melting the Arctic, opening up valuable resources and new shipping routes, making it a hotbed for geopolitical competition. Russia, the U.S., Canada, and others are staking territorial claims, leading to both potential conflict and cooperation. Key organizations like the Arctic Council and agreements like the Ilulissat Declaration promote peaceful cooperation, but the rush for oil, gas, and strategic military bases could strain these frameworks. The stakes are high for global security, environmental sustainability, and economic gains in this evolving Arctic landscape.

BACKGROUND

From a remote, ice-bound frontier to a region of strategic importance due to climate change the arctic is now a new geopolitical space of growing importance. Global warming is melting the Arctic ice, opening up sea lanes and making previously inaccessible resources viable for extraction.

The amount of Arctic sea ice that survives the summer melt season has been declining rapidly. From 1979–2023, the amount of Arctic sea ice has decreased by 13% per decade. The oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by 95% over the past 30 years. Models project that for every 2°F of warming, the Arctic sea ice will decrease by about 15% annually and 25% in the summer. If emissions continue to rise, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by 2040.

WHAT INSTITUTIONS AND TREATIES CURRENTLY EXIST

The Arctic Council:

The Arctic Council has eight permanent member states: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. The Council has negotiated three legally binding agreements among the Arctic states, including agreements on search and rescue, oil pollution preparedness and response, and scientific cooperation. The Council has produced landmark studies, including the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment and the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment.

Ilulissat Declaration:

The Ilulissat Declaration is a framework for cooperation between the five Arctic coastal states to address the challenges of climate change, resource development, and other issues in the Arctic Ocean. The declaration outlines principles for cooperation on legal arrangements, research, and managing natural resources. It also emphasizes the importance of international law, including the law of the sea, in governing the Arctic Ocean. Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Russian Federation, and the United States are signatories. The Ilulissat Declaration was adopted in 2008 in response to concerns about military conflict in the Arctic after Russia planted a flag there in 2007. The declaration was a preemptive act to reinforce order and stability in the region, and to head off calls for an Arctic Treaty that would dilute the influence of the coastal states.

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

Untapped resources:

There is untapped and unclaimed wealth that now due to climate change and arctic ice melting may be economically viable to extract. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Arctic is estimated to hold around 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil, representing roughly 13% of the world's untapped conventional oil reserves, alongside approximately 30% of the world's undiscovered conventional natural gas reserves; additionally, the Arctic is believed to contain significant mineral deposits including diamonds, phosphate, iron ore, and potentially large, commercially viable fisheries due to climate change impacting ice cover. With melting ice, Arctic fisheries are projected to expand significantly, potentially leading to increased fishing activity. Despite the vast resource potential, extracting resources from the Arctic is complex due to harsh weather conditions and challenging ice environments, making development costly.

Overlapping claims:

There are overlapping claims by Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, and Denmark (via Greenland) over extended continental shelves. The primary overlapping claim among Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway, and Denmark (via Greenland) regarding extended continental shelves is over the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater mountain range in the Arctic Ocean, which each country claims as an extension of their continental shelf, leading to significant overlaps in their territorial claims in the central Arctic region. Each country has submitted claims to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) regarding their extended continental shelf boundaries, including the disputed areas. The overlapping claims raise concerns about potential disputes over access to resources like oil and gas in the Arctic region.

Military Base Expansions/Additions

A staggering 53% of the Arctic coastline belongs to Russia. Since 2005, Russia has reopened tens of Arctic Soviet-era military bases quietly. Wrangel Island, Cape Schmidt, Temp Air base and Kotelny Island developments are right across the Bering Strait from Alaska. As of February 2023, Russia had six bases, 14 airfields, 16 deep-water ports, and 14 icebreakers built. All of this gives evidence that Russia sees the Arctic as a priority including its self named Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). By contrast the US has only Eareckson Air Station in the strict definition of the Arctic. Candid has Nanisivik Naval Facility which is a Canadian Forces naval facility on Baffin Island, Nunavut. There are also Canadian Forces bases in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Demark has the Danish Joint Arctic Command (JACO) is headquartered in Nuuk, Greenland and Pituffik Space Force Base (formerly Thule Air Base). Norway is in the midst of spinning up an arctic base for long range drones in Andøya. Within the Arctic Circle are the Norwegian military bases of Bardufoss, Setermoen and Osmarka. All of these are being developed in conjunction with the US.

THE NEW SILK ROAD (THE POLAR SILK ROAD)-ARCTIC SHIPPING ROUTES

The Northern Sea Route is a shipping lane that connects Europe and Asia through the Arctic Ocean, north of Russia. It can reduce travel distance by up to 50% compared to the Suez or Panama Canal. The Northwest Passage which is a water route that connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the islands of northern Canada. It can reduce travel distance by up to 32% compared to the traditional route through the Panama Canal. The Polar Silk Road is estimated to be between $4,000 billion and $26,000 billion. This is more than double China's GDP at its highest estimate. China has already invested over $90 billion in infrastructure, assets, and other projects in the Arctic. In a high-end climate change scenario, they could be open for shipping by the 2070s. Low end estimates say as soon as 2030.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the Arctic has transformed from a frozen expanse into a geopolitical arena filled with immense strategic and economic significance. Climate change continues to reveal untapped resources and new maritime pathways, turning the region into a frontier for potential conflict and competition among world powers. Territorial claims, resource extraction, and military developments are reshaping the Arctic, with Russia, the United States, Canada, and other nations vying for influence and access.

Existing frameworks, like the Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration, aim to foster cooperation and stability, yet the intensifying competition underscores the limits of current governance structures in addressing emerging challenges. As these countries push the boundaries of territorial claims and military reach, the potential for collaboration remains uncertain. The decisions made today will shape the Arctic’s future, with far-reaching implications for global geopolitics, environmental stewardship, and economic development.

SOURCES:

https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change#:~:text=For%20every%202%C2%B0F,to%20global%20sea%20level%20rise

https://environments.aq/publications/antarctic-sea-ice-3-trends-and-future-projections/#:~:text=Sea%2Dice%20coverage%20is%20projected,alone%20whether%20these%20are%20changing

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-summer-minimum

https://arctic-council.org/about/#:~:text=The%20Arctic%20Council%20is%20the,of%20the%20eight%20Arctic%20States

https://arctic-council.org/news/reflections-on-the-past-and-future-of-the-arctic-council/

https://arcticportal.org/images/stories/pdf/Ilulissat-declaration.pdf

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/256061/1/2008C18.pdf

https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/desecuritization-geopolitics-law-arctic/#:~:text=By%20Marc%20Jacobsen%20and%20Jeppe,their%20interactions%2C%20and%20their%20challenges

https://www.thesimonsfoundation.ca/highlights/ilulissat-and-arctic-amity-ten-years-later#:~:text=They%20were%20concerned%20because%20a,Paper%2C%20May%2014%202018.pdf

https://www.unclosdebate.org/argument/844/us-has-significant-interests-untapped-mineral-wealth-arctic#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Geological%20Survey%20estimates,4

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/13/arctic-competition-resources-governance-critical-minerals-shipping-climate-change-power-map/#:~:text=These%20resources%20include%20roughly%20a,dollars'%20worth%20of%20minerals%20held