Monday Nov 18, 2024

EP82: The Dragon Takes Flight: China's Growing Naval Air Power

Summary:

In this episode we examine the rapid development of China's naval aviation capabilities, specifically its aircraft carrier program. We discuss China's progress in building carrier-based aircraft, training pilots, and acquiring the necessary technology to operate a powerful fleet. We acknowledge the significant challenges China faces in catching up to the experience and technology of the US Navy but highlight China's determination to develop a globally capable blue-water navy. We analyze the advancements in China's carrier program, from the initial refurbished Soviet-era vessel to the more advanced, domestically built carriers, and discuss the implications of these developments for regional and global power dynamics.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are China's current naval aviation capabilities and how do they compare to those of other global powers?

2. How has China's aircraft carrier program evolved, and what are its future goals and challenges?

3.How is China's development of naval aviation impacting the global maritime balance of power?

Long format:

Chinese Navy

The Dragon Takes Flight: China's Growing Naval Air Power

On 14 November 2024, NationalInterest.org published “Evidence Is Building China Wants a Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier”

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/evidence-building-china-wants-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier-213708

And friend of the website and podcast Dan Moreman asked a question and made several very good comments that inspired this episode.

TL;DR:

Traditional notions that the Chinese navy cannot takeoff and land aircraft reliably is outdated information. While nowhere near the operational quality or pace of the US Navy, China's naval aviation capabilities have significantly advanced over the recent years, moving from one-time basic operations to now launching and landing aircraft on carriers with increasing sophistication. With new, more advanced carriers like the Fujian and improved pilot training, China aims to protect its maritime interests, project power, and challenge U.S. naval dominance in the South China Sea and beyond. However, again, its capabilities still lag behind the U.S. Navy due to limited operational experience and ongoing challenges. China's long-term goal is to build a globally capable blue-water navy, with plans to expand its carrier fleet, including potential nuclear-powered vessels.

Introduction:

China's rapid advancements in naval aviation have reshaped global perceptions of its military capabilities, particularly its aircraft carrier program. Once criticized for its inability to reliably take off and land aircraft on carriers, China has made significant progress, transforming its naval aviation into a cornerstone of its maritime strategy. This development underscores China's intent to protect vital sea lanes, assert its dominance in contested regions like the South China Sea, and challenge the established global naval order. By leveraging technology, strategic planning, and foreign expertise, China has embarked on an ambitious journey to establish itself as a formidable naval power.

Information

The old adage was that China can’t takeoff or land on aircraft carriers, why are they even building them. And this was certainly the case in the past. However, current evidence has prompted a re-examination of this pre-existing notion.

China considers developing naval aviation crucial to protect its maritime interests, project power beyond its coastline, secure vital sea lanes, and assert its status as a major global power, particularly in the contested South China Sea, by enabling operations far from its shores and potentially challenging the dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region; essentially allowing them to deter or respond to potential threats at sea with a robust air component based on naval vessels. Aircraft carriers and naval aviation give China the ability to deploy military force further from its mainland, influencing regional dynamics and potentially deterring adversaries. A strong naval aviation force can safeguard critical trade routes and energy supplies by monitoring and defending against potential threats at sea. Building a powerful naval force, including carrier-based aviation, is often seen as a symbol of national strength and global influence.

It is temping to compare Chinese capabilities against the US Navy. But perhaps that is unfair given that the US Navy has been operating naval aviation for over 100 years. Nevertheless, it is important to do the comparison. 

China can reliably take off and land aircraft on its aircraft carriers, although compared to the US Navy, their capabilities are still considered limited, with challenges in complex weather conditions, pilot training, and overall carrier operations, particularly when it comes to high sortie rates and advanced combat scenarios; their newer carriers are improving this capability with the addition of catapult launch systems. While China has successfully conducted carrier operations with aircraft like the J-15 fighter on their carriers like the Liaoning, their overall experience and proficiency are still considered less developed than the US Navy. Earlier Chinese carriers used a ski-jump design for takeoffs, which restricts the types and weight of aircraft that can operate from them. China is building newer carriers like the Type 003 class with electromagnetic catapults, significantly enhancing their launch capabilities and allowing for heavier aircraft. Pilot training for carrier operations is a major area where China needs improvement, including night landings and operations in rough weather. 

China's aircraft carrier program has progressed significantly over the past decade. The Liaoning (Type 001), a refurbished Soviet-era vessel, was commissioned in 2012 and serves as a training platform to develop carrier operation skills. It uses a ski-jump for aircraft launches, limiting the payload of aircraft. The Shandong (Type 002), China's first domestically built carrier, entered service in 2019, featuring improvements over its predecessor. It also was built carrier with a similar ski-jump configuration to the Liaoning. The most recent addition, the Fujian, launched in 2022, is equipped with advanced electromagnetic catapult systems (EMALS), enabling the launch of heavier and more diverse aircraft (CATOBAR - Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery). This technological advancement positions the Fujian comparably to the most advanced conventionally powered carriers globally.

The operational tempo of China's aircraft carriers is expected to increase with the commissioning of the Fujian, which will allow the PLAN's carrier strike groups to deploy more frequently. The Fujian is expected to enter service in late 2024 or 2026. The Fujian's electromagnetic catapults allow it to launch heavier aircraft, including those with anti-surface and land-attack weapons. The Fujian can also launch larger airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, such as the KJ-600, similar to the US Navy’s E-2 Hawkeye. The current primary carrier-borne fighter is the J-15 Flying Shark, with variants like the J-15D focusing on electronic warfare, showing China's intent to enhance its naval air combat capabilities. There's also progress on the J-35, a new fighter jet designed for carrier operations, which would complement or eventually replace the J-15 series. (The carriers also host Z-20) helicopters which is a medium utility helicopter with a potential doe anti-submarine warfare roles.

In November 2024, China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted its first dual-aircraft carrier operation in the South China Sea. The operation involved the PLAN's two active carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, and at least 11 other vessels. The operation demonstrated the PLAN's growing air wing and its ability to operate farther from the Chinese coast.

Developing proficient carrier-based pilots is a critical component of China's naval strategy. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has focused on training pilots capable of operating from carriers, a complex skill set requiring extensive practice. Notably, China has sought to accelerate this process by recruiting former Western military pilots to impart advanced carrier operation techniques. This approach aims to bridge the experience gap and enhance the proficiency of Chinese pilots in carrier-based operations.

China has learned naval aviation skills from many sources. The Soviet design of the Liaoning provided China with a foundational understanding of aircraft carrier operations and helped them adapt Soviet-style naval aviation for their own use. China adapted the Sukhoi Su-33 fighter design to create the Shenyang J-15, a carrier-capable aircraft tailored for the Liaoning and Shandong carriers. China has a fairly robust training cadre involving land-based simulators before transitioning to carrier-based operations. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) established dedicated naval aviation academies to train pilots in takeoffs, landings, and combat operations specific to aircraft carriers. Reports indicate that China has recruited retired military aviators, including British and other Western carrier-trained pilots, to fast-track their learning curve. These experts have provided valuable insights into advanced operational techniques and carrier air wing integration. Former civilian instructors and private contractors were allegedly employed to teach fundamental and advanced techniques related to naval aviation. China closely observed the operations of U.S. and other foreign carriers during joint exercises, deployments, and conflicts. Chinese vessels have followed U.S. carrier strike groups during their regional deployments to study their formation, logistics, and operations. Finally, there are open source materials such as hours and hours of YouTube videos that give tactics and training methods of carrier operation and even carrier based piloting available.

Despite these advancements, China faces challenges in matching the operational capabilities of established naval powers like the United States. The U.S. Navy's extensive experience and larger fleet provide a significant advantage in carrier operations. China's relatively nascent carrier program must overcome a steep learning curve to achieve comparable operational proficiency.

Looking ahead, China plans to expand its carrier fleet, with reports indicating the construction of additional carriers, including potential nuclear-powered vessels. This expansion aligns with China's broader objective to develop a blue-water navy capable of sustained operations across the globe, thereby enhancing its strategic influence in international waters.

Conclusion:

While China's naval aviation capabilities have advanced considerably, they remain in their formative stages compared to established naval powers like the United States. The challenges of operational proficiency, pilot training, and carrier technology persist, but China’s commitment to overcoming these hurdles is evident in its investments and strategic planning. With the launch of newer, more advanced carriers and a focus on training proficient carrier-based pilots, China is steadily building a blue-water navy capable of projecting power globally. As the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continues to develop, its trajectory will significantly influence the balance of power in the maritime domain, signaling the dawn of a new era in naval competition.

SOURCES:

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-flexing-its-aircraft-carrier-muscles-all-over-asia-212909

https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-aircraft-carriers-play-theatrical-role-pose-little-threat-yet-2023-05-05/

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/15/WS6736f127a310f1265a1cda0d.html#:~:text=On%20Nov%2023%2C%202012%2C%20pilot,defense%20to%20far%2Dsea%20defense

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Liaoning#:~:text=The%20Chinese%20carrier%20aircraft%20inventory,and%20anti%2Dsubmarine%20patrol%20aircraft

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5#:~:text=As%20China%20continues%20to%20build,actually%20doing%20the%20operations%20themselves

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1311543.shtml

https://chinapower.csis.org/aircraft-carrier/#:~:text=Two%20months%20after%20the%20ship,Liaoning%20is%20now%20combat%20ready

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Articles/Article-Display/Article/2842336/chinas-domestic-aircraft-carrier-program-modernization-and-challenges/#:~:text=After%20the%20first%20successful%20launches,of%20the%20Chinese%20Communist%20Party

https://defenseopinion.com/chinas-long-march-toward-aircraft-carrier-capability/597/

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-vs-chinese-navy-aircraft-carriers-2024-5#:~:text=With%20vessels%20from%20follow%2Don,those%20of%20the%20US%20Navy

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-09-07/navy-affiliated-academic-confirms-chinas-plan-for-two-more-aircraft-carriers-101602169.html#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Defense%20also%20said,by%202024%2C%20with%20additional%20carriers%20to%20follow.''

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-chinas-aircraft-carriers-compare-to-us-navy-flattops-2020-10#:~:text=The%20latest%2C%20the%20Type%20003%20class%2C%20which,soon%20as%20the%20end%20of%20this%20year

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