Thursday Nov 21, 2024
EP88: Did Russia really launch an ICBM into Ukraine? If so, what is the significance?
Summary:
Multiple news sources report conflicting information regarding a missile strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. Ukrainian officials claim Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a claim disputed by unnamed Western officials who suggest it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) instead. The lack of confirmation from Russia adds to the uncertainty. The potential implications of using an ICBM, even with a conventional warhead, are significant, raising concerns about escalation and the redrawing of lines between conventional and nuclear warfare. The incident highlights the difficulties in verifying real-time military actions during conflict.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
- What are the implications of Russia potentially using an ICBM in a conventional conflict?
- How does this reported incident impact international agreements and norms regarding nuclear weapons?
- What are the potential ramifications of Russia's alleged ICBM use on global security and future military actions?
Long format:
Did Russia really launch an ICBM into Ukraine? If so, what is the significance?
As of the time of this publication Thursday, 21 November, 2024 at 1102 am Eastern time, the claim that Russia launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) into Ukraine has been disputed. Here's the current understanding based on available information.
Ukrainian officials and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially stated that Russia launched an ICBM at Dnipro, suggesting it was the first use of such a weapon in the conflict. They described the missile's characteristics as matching those of an ICBM. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that the missile's speed and altitude were indicative of an ICBM. This suggests that the missile's flight characteristics, observed through radar or other tracking systems, matched the known capabilities of ICBMs, which are designed to reach very high speeds and altitudes to re-enter the atmosphere at high velocity. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that the missile was launched from the Astrakhan region in Russia. The distance from Astrakhan to Dnipro fits within the range capabilities of an ICBM, although it's noted that such a range would be unusually short for an ICBM's typical use. There have been mentions of visual evidence like videos and images shared on social media platforms, purportedly showing the missile in flight or its impact. While not definitive proof on their own, these could contribute to the narrative of an ICBM launch if the characteristics displayed align with known ICBM behavior, such as multiple reentry vehicles or warheads separating in flight. Although not directly cited as evidence for an ICBM, the nature of the damage and the attack's scale might be interpreted as consistent with what an ICBM could achieve, although this is speculative and less conclusive without detailed forensic analysis.
A Western official who was not named, as reported by sources like ABC News and NBC News, has contradicted this claim, stating it was not an ICBM but an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that was used. This missile, while still significant, does not qualify as an ICBM due to its range capabilities. ICBMs are designed for intercontinental ranges, typically over 5,500 kilometers. The distance from Astrakhan to Dnipro is around 600 miles (approximately 965 kilometers), which is significantly less than what an ICBM would usually be used for. The officials might have access to flight data which showed the missile's path and velocity did not match what would be expected from an ICBM launch aimed at an intercontinental target. An ICBM would typically achieve much higher altitudes and speeds for its intended range. Satellite data could have been used to track the missile's trajectory, showing it was not an ICBM due to the flight path and altitude profile.
The Russian Defense Ministry has not confirmed the launch of an ICBM, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov referred questions about the missile strike to the Defense Ministry without providing further details. There was an incident where Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman, was instructed during a live briefing not to comment on the ballistic missile strike in Dnipro, as observed by posts on X. This indicates an intention to avoid direct commentary on the specifics of the attack from official sources.
Given these points, while Ukraine asserts an ICBM was used, this claim is not universally accepted or confirmed by Western intelligence sources, which suggest a different classification of missile was employed. Therefore, as of now, it is not conclusively confirmed that Russia launched an ICBM into Ukraine. This situation highlights the complexity of verifying military actions in real-time during conflicts, where information can be preliminary or subject to interpretation.
But it’s worth examining what if…
Historical Context and Implications:
The reported use of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) by Russia in an attack against Ukraine is indeed a significant escalation, marking a pivotal moment in military history where such long-range strategic weapons have been employed in an active conflict.
The unprecedented use of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in warfare, if confirmed, would mark a significant departure from the traditional roles these missiles have played. ICBMs were developed during the Cold War primarily as part of nuclear deterrence strategies. Their role was to provide a retaliatory strike capability in the event of a nuclear attack, ensuring Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Their deployment was always seen in the light of global strategic balance rather than tactical battlefield use. Until now, ICBMs have never been used in actual combat. Tests and launches have occurred, but always as demonstrations of capability or for space launches (e.g., the Soviet R-7, which launched Sputnik and Vostok spacecraft). ICBMs are designed to strike targets thousands of kilometers away, typically large, fixed installations like cities or military bases. Their use has been conceptualized for strategic, not tactical, purposes due to their range, cost, and the political ramifications of their deployment. The destructive power of an ICBM, especially if it carries multiple warheads (MIRVs), is far beyond what is necessary or practical for most battlefield operations. ICBMs aren’t designed for precision strikes on tactical targets. Their guidance systems are meant for large area coverage. The psychological impact might be the intended use here, more so than the physical destruction, as it would signal an escalation of the conflict to a potentially nuclear level.
Deploying an ICBM in this manner could set a dangerous precedent, potentially normalizing their use in conventional warfare, thus blurring the lines between conventional and nuclear forces. ICBMs are extremely expensive and resource-intensive. Using one in a tactical operation would not only be economically inefficient but also deplete valuable strategic assets.
Type of Missile Reported to Have Launched
The reported type of missile used was the RS-26 Rubezh. It is a solid-fuel propulsion missile and a range of approximately 5,800 kilometers. This missile, while classified as an ICBM, can also be viewed as an intermediate-range ballistic missile depending on its payload configuration.
RS-26 missile
Launch Origin and Trajectory:
The missile was allegedly launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, which lies on the Caspian Sea, targeting Dnipro, in Ukraine. This trajectory underscores the long-range capabilities of ICBMs, typically designed to travel thousands of kilometers but used here in a relatively shorter range engagement, which is unusual for an ICBM.
Strategic Messaging and Nuclear Escalation:
The launch, if confirmed, could serve as a stark reminder to both Ukraine and its Western allies of Russia's nuclear capabilities. By employing an ICBM, Russia might be signaling its readiness to escalate to nuclear options if provoked, especially in light of recent Ukrainian use of Western-supplied long-range missiles against targets in Russia. This action might also be interpreted as Russia testing international reactions, or as an attempt to deter further escalation by demonstrating its capacity for a nuclear response, albeit with a conventional payload this time.
International Protocols and Precedent:
There's concern over whether the U.S. was informed prior to the launch, as per Cold War era protocols which require notification of ICBM launches. The absence of such notification could suggest a shift in Russian policy towards more aggressive posturing, potentially aligning with nations like North Korea, which does not typically provide warnings.
Global Reaction and Future Implications:
This incident has raised alarms about the stability of international norms regarding nuclear weapon use and missile launches. It could prompt a reevaluation of security policies, especially in how nations communicate military actions that could be perceived as nuclear threats.
The global community, particularly nuclear powers, must now reconsider the frameworks of communication and deterrence to prevent escalation, possibly leading to new dialogues or treaties aimed at reaffirming these protocols.
In summary, Russia's reported use of an ICBM with a conventional payload against Ukraine not only escalates the ongoing conflict but also poses broader questions about the integrity of international agreements meant to prevent nuclear miscalculation. This act, if confirmed, could redefine the rules of engagement in modern warfare, pushing the world closer to revisiting Cold War-era tensions where the threat of nuclear escalation was ever-present.
Sources:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-icbm-test-launches/32733341.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-launched-icbm-ukraine-war-putin-rcna181131
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42599
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-icbm-attackddnipro-38b0faf6eed2cef98bdbc9be18f58244
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-launches-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-at-ukraine/
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russia-launches-icbm-at-ukraine-for-the-first-time-says-kyiv-7071206
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