Geopolitics Unplugged

Welcome to ”Geopolitics Unplugged,” your near-daily source for in-depth, analytical coverage of the most pressing geopolitical, geotechnological, geoeconomic and geostrategic issues of our time. We dive beneath the headlines to explore the real dynamics at play—whether it’s the shifting balance of power in the world, the rise of new technologies and their impact on global economy and security, or the strategies shaping the future of nations.

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At "Geopolitics Unplugged," we don’t just report on the world—we break it down, piece by piece, with integrity and intellectual rigor.

Episodes

Tuesday Nov 05, 2024


Summary:
In this episode we explore the various software platforms and services offered by Palantir Technologies, a company specializing in data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI).  Palantir's platforms, such as Foundry, Gotham, Apollo, and AIP, are designed to help organizations analyze data, make informed decisions, and improve operational efficiency. These platforms have applications across diverse industries, including healthcare, finance, energy, transportation, and defense. We highlight Palantir's involvement in government projects, particularly with intelligence and defense agencies, as well as its growing presence in commercial markets. We also detail some of Palantir's lesser-known products like TITAN, MetaConstellation, and Maven, which showcase the company's innovative use of AI in areas like battlefield analysis and satellite imagery interpretation.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
1. What is Palantir's core business and how does it use AI to achieve its goals?
2. How does Palantir's technology impact various sectors, including government and commercial industries?
3. What are the key strengths and weaknesses of Palantir's various platforms, and how do they contribute to the company's overall mission?
Long format:
 Palantir: an amazing applied AI company you probably never heard of, but should know
Palantir is a US-based technology company that provides software platforms and services to help organizations analyze data securely.
It’s most public and consumer facing part of its business is in data analytics and especially in using AI to analyze big data. It has a few private corporate clients but its major base of business is every single three letter agency in the US and many you have never heard of as well. Its commercial side use is growing quite a bit. Commercial revenue surged by 27% year-over-year to $229 million, surpassing the 16% growth in government revenue to $335 million
Those who are familiar with the company are probably most versed in their well known projects including: Palantir Foundry, Palantir Gotham, Palantir Apollo, and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). 
FOUNDRY
Palantir Foundry is a data management platform that helps businesses make data-driven decisions. Foundry can connect and synchronize data from various sources, including structured, unstructured, streaming, and IoT data. Foundry's AI and machine learning capabilities can be used for a variety of purposes, such as building safer cars, securing supply chains, and accelerating cancer research. Foundry helps teams automate decision-making by providing a unified platform for data, analytics, and business teams.
There are many commercial users of this platform including United Airlines, CVS, AIG, Jacobs, Sonnedix, PG&E, Southern California Edison (SCE), Skywise, Trafigura, Athinia™, NCATS, Concordance Healthcare Solutions, and Castrol. It is also widely used in the oil and gas industry. The UK’s National Healthcare System (NHS) is a customer as well. US agencies that use or have used Foundry include HHS, CDC, FEMA, DOD, NIH, and FDA. 
GOTHAM
Palantir Gotham is a software platform that helps users make decisions globally by integrating and visualizing data from various sources. Gotham can integrate and visualize data and models of any type or volume. Gotham can autonomously task sensors like drones and satellites. Palantir Gotham is used by intelligence and defense agencies, and has been used for a variety of purposes, including:
Tracking troop movements: Palantir Gotham can be used to track an adversary's troop movements.
Predictive policing: Palantir Gotham has been used as a predictive policing system.
Drug discovery and development: Palantir Gotham can be used to analyze data to identify drug targets, test drugs, and market drugs.
The CIA, FBI, NSA, and Department of Defense use Palantir Gotham for counterterrorism, cyber operations, and defense logistics. Some private companies, such as Barbaricum, Iron EagleX Inc., Intuitive Research & Technology Corporation, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, also use Palantir Gotham. 
APOLLO
Palantir Apollo is a software as a system (SaaS) platform that helps users manage, deploy, monitor, and secure software across various environments. Apollo can deploy software across multiple environments, including air-gapped environments, and manage releases. Apollo can automatically monitor for vulnerabilities and help users balance security controls with agility. Apollo can automatically orchestrate software upgrades and changes across environments. Apollo can allow users to roll back software. Apollo can automatically remediate issues with releases by blocking bad releases from being rolled out. Apollo can help speed up the release of products by over 25X and cut DevSecOps costs by 50%. This platform has its most customers. On the commercial side, some notable clients include: Morgan Stanley, Merck KGaA, Airbus, Wejo, Lilium, PG&E and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. Government agencies use Apollo as well. 
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PLATORM
Most exciting to me is Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is a workspace for building AI apps, agents, and actions. It enables real-time decision-making by integrating AI with operations. It takes a company or agencies existing data and uses AI to make sense of it and then allow for human interaction to query to discover the best and most optimal path forward. AIP is used by organizations in government and commerce for a variety of applications, including public health and battery production. AIP is a traceable and auditable system, built to capture a full audit trail to ensure trust and accountability in responsible human-machine teaming. In essence, Palantir AIP is a comprehensive tool that makes it easier for organizations to leverage AI, improve efficiency, and make better decisions based on data-driven insights. It is used by AARP, Charter Steel, Cleveland Clinic, Cone Health, EdgeScale AI, Foxtrot + Aniko, Fujitsu, Jacobs, Kinder Morgan, NorthWind, Parexel, Tampa General Hospital, Trios Health, and Sompo Japan and even the fast food chain Wendy’s. These capabilities of AIP are very useful for agencies such as the NSA, NRO, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and military intelligence agencies that collect a lot of non public data and are awash in data. It provides a means to organize, distill and interrogate this form of big data. 
OTHER PRIDUCTS
Some of its lesser known products include
The Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN) is a ground station system developed by Palantir Technologies that uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to help the U.S. Army collect, process, and share intelligence data. Physically it is contained within a truck. The Advanced model will have complete features installed in larger tactical trucks like the M1083. Conversely, the Basic version will be fitted onto Joint Light Tactical Vehicles and will have no direct space downlink. TITAN is the Army's next-generation Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance ground station. TITAN can access sensors from space, the air, and the ground to gather data. TITAN can access sensors from space, the air, and the ground to gather data. TITSN is used to shorten the OODA loop on the battlefield. The first prototype was delivered in August 2024. 
Palantir MetaConstellation is a software program that uses satellite technology to help decision-makers on Earth. It uses Palantir's Edge AI technology to help with tasks. MetaConstellation can help users answer time-sensitive questions across the planet, such as:
Where are wildfire indicators located? 
How are climate changes affecting crop productivity? 
When and where are naval fleets conducting operations?
Palantir’s MetaConstellation software, which uses AI to analyze satellite imagery, open-source data, drone footage, and reports from the ground to present commanders with military options, is “responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine,” according to Alex Karp who is the CEO of Palantair. 
Palantir Skykit is a self-contained intelligence center that allows users to perform operations and process intelligence in areas with unreliable communications, power, and networking. It's designed to help users gain an advantage over adversaries in extreme, hostile, and adverse environments. Skykit is small enough to be carried or attached to a light truck or small boat. Skykit has its own secure satellite communications. Skykit is powered by Palantir's MetaConstellation and Sensor Inference Platform (SIP) software. Skykit uses computer vision algorithms that send detections directly to the base station. It too is being extensively used in Ukraine. 
Palantir Metropolis was originally Palantir Finance. This one has been a commercial disappointment. It analyzes commercial, proprietary and public data sets and discovers trends, relationships and anomalies, including predictive analytics. 
The Maven Smart System is a prototype AI-powered battlefield analyzer developed by Palantir Technologies for the US Army. The system combines data from various sources into a single interface to help intelligence analysts identify military points of interest more quickly. The Maven Smart System is a key part of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's Maven AI framework. The system helps with battlespace awareness, global integration, contested logistics, joint fires, and targeting workflows. The system can integrate data from various sources, including social media. The system can provide analysts with near-real-time data that can be used to validate against the commander's objective. The Maven Smart System is expected to be integrated into the US military's Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2). The system could help commanders make better and faster decisions. It was recently deployed to the recovery efforts for Hurricane Helene. 
Palantir Government Web Services (PGWS) is a program that offers tools to help defense tech innovators build, manage, and ship solutions. PGWS provides access to Palantir's technology, which has been developed over 20 years, to government tech innovators. 
Palantir FedStart is a SaaS offering for companies and startups looking to deploy software to the federal government. 
The Ontology Software Development Kit (OSDK) is a tool that allows users to build custom SDKs for their business. It's a data service that integrates business logic, actions, and data into a model that centralizes business knowledge. 
The Electromagnetic Battle Management - Joint Decision Support (EMBM-J DS) Prototype is a web-based application that will help the Department of Defense (DoD) with Joint Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations (JEMSO). Electromagnetic Battle Management (EMBM) is a military term that refers to the coordination and use of the electromagnetic spectrum in battle operations. The prototype will automate key planning processes for the electromagnetic spectrum.
Palantir Technologies Inc. has signed a partnership agreement with the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine which will pave the way for the roll-out of a digitally led demining approach backed by Palantir’s AI-enabled software.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, Palantir stands out as a powerhouse in applied AI, operating in the critical spaces where data, security, and decision-making converge. With robust platforms like Foundry, Gotham, Apollo, and AIP, it is revolutionizing data analysis and intelligence operations for both commercial enterprises and government agencies. Its impact extends from private sectors like healthcare, finance, and transportation to the highest echelons of government, supporting defense, intelligence, and public safety.
Palantir’s contributions to AI and big data are both wide-ranging and impactful. Its platforms are used not only to analyze data but to make real-time, informed decisions in high-stakes situations—from securing national borders to supporting military operations. Tools like TITAN, MetaConstellation, and Maven showcase the company’s commitment to pushing technological boundaries, even as they remain largely under the radar for the general public.
As Palantir continues to innovate and expand its reach into commercial markets, it’s clear that its technology will play a pivotal role in the future of AI-driven decision-making, making it a company to watch for anyone interested in the evolution of artificial intelligence, big data, and security in an interconnected world.
Sources
https://www.palantir.com/about/
https://www.palantir.com/privacy-and-security/#:~:text=Who%20is%20Palantir?,to%20exercise%20your%20rights
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wA3EgtWrxLU&t=0
https://www.palantir.com/foundry-explained-get-demo/
https://www.palantir.com/assets/xrfr7uokpv1b/54mwrnjeu6Y55Lj24RS1Sx/2e2b7b7b4fe2f0ad9ee6a95e976c03c6/FfB_Technical_Overview_v4.pdf
https://unit8.com/resources/palantir-foundry-101-2/
https://www.taloflow.ai/guides/products/palantir-foundry#:~:text=is%20Palantir%20Foundry%3F-,Palantir%20Foundry%20is%20a%20platform%20that%20removes%20the%20barriers%20between,and%20analysis%20across%20data%20sources
https://www.palantir.com/offerings/energy/#:~:text=Spotlight:%20AI%2DPowered%20Drill%20Rig%20Optimization&text=%E2%86%B3%20In%20conversation%20with%20Bob,critical%20institutions%20across%20the%20globe
https://www.palantir.com/uk/healthcare/#:~:text=Foundry%20helps%20doctors%2C%20nurses%20and,need%20to%20do%20their%20job
https://www.palantir.com/offerings/federal-health/#:~:text=Foundry%2C%20a%20configuration%20of%20the,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20outbreak
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/gotham/
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/#:~:text=Foundry%20was%20built%20and%20tested,%2C%20analytic%2C%20and%20operational%20systems.&text=Palantir%20Gotham%20is%20a%20commercially,across%20roles%20and%20all%20domains
https://www.applytosupply.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud/services/316446721604546#:~:text=Palantir%20Gotham%20is%20an%20enterprise,full%20ecosystem%20of%20available%20data
https://medium.com/@anand94523/palantir-gotham-a-powerful-tool-for-the-pharma-industry-bf5a3cb9c133#:~:text=Palantir%20Gotham%20is%20a%20powerful,improve%20their%20return%20on%20investment
https://discovery.hgdata.com/product/palantir-gotham
https://quartr.com/insights/company-research/palantir-technologies-and-its-broad-spectrum-of-impact#:~:text=Originally%20designed%20for%20the%20U.S.,Osama%20bin%20Laden%20in%202011
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/apollo/
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/apollo/product/
https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RW1p84L#:~:text=APOLLO%20OVERVIEW,APOLLO
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/aip/
https://www.palantir.com/platforms/aip/defense/#:~:text=AIP%20is%20a%20traceable%20and,in%20responsible%20human%2Dmachine%20teaming.&text=AIP%20is%20open%20and%20interoperable,commercial%2C%20and%20open%20source%20models
https://peoiews.army.mil/2024/03/06/army-tactical-intelligence-targeting-access-node-titan-ground-station-prototype-award/
https://defensescoop.com/2024/08/20/army-queries-industry-inform-titan-system-production/#:~:text=For%20that%20effort%2C%20the%20Army,intellectual%20property%20strategies%2C%20among%20others
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/07/palantir-titan-army-jblm#:~:text=A%20Tactical%20Intelligence%20Targeting%20Access,takes%20to%20pull%20the%20trigger
https://peoiews.army.mil/2024/03/06/army-tactical-intelligence-targeting-access-node-titan-ground-station-prototype-award/#:~:text=TITAN%20is%20the%20Army's%20next,Altitude%2C%20Aerial%20and%20Terrestrial%20layers
https://xailient.com/casestudies/palantir-poc/#:~:text=Palantir%20Technologies'%20Meta%2DConstellation%20harnesses,are%20naval%20fleets%20conducting%20operations?
https://www.palantir.com/offerings/metaconstellation/
https://time.com/6691662/ai-ukraine-war-palantir/
https://www.palantir.com/offerings/skykit/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5a9aASy--c
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armed-force-use-skykit-palantir/
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armed-force-use-skykit-palantir/
https://www.reuters.com/technology/palantir-wins-480-million-us-army-deal-maven-prototype-2024-05-29/#:~:text=Palantir%20logo%20is%20seen%20near,Chris%20Reese%20and%20Tom%20Hogue
https://www.govconwire.com/2024/09/palantir-receives-100m-army-contract-for-maven-smart-system-expansion/
https://defensescoop.com/2024/10/09/maven-smart-system-hurricane-helene-disaster-response/#:~:text=The%20Maven%20Smart%20System%20%E2%80%94%20an,aid%20in%20the%20relief%20efforts
https://defensescoop.com/2024/05/30/combatant-commands-palantir-maven-scale-targeting-capabilities/#:~:text=Data%20from%20social%20media%20could,the%20Pentagon's%20Open%20DIGAR%20initiative
https://blog.palantir.com/announcing-palantir-government-web-services-9fa1cdbbc6fc
https://www.palantir.com/offerings/government-web-services/
https://www.palantir.com/docs/foundry/ontology-sdk/overview/#:~:text=The%20Ontology%20Software%20Development%20Kit,that%20can%20power%20your%20organization.
https://blog.palantir.com/introducing-palantir-fedstart-cd5995d0dfaa
https://potomacofficersclub.com/news/palantir-secures-disa-contract-for-embmj-ds-development/#:~:text=Palantir%20USG%20has%20received%20a,capabilities%20into%20a%20single%20platform
https://thedefensepost.com/2024/04/03/us-electromagnetic-battle-management-prototype/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20ability%20to%20ingest%20component,all%20aspects%20of%20mission%20planning.%E2%80%9D
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-deliver-electromagnetic-battle-management-105900054.html
https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2024/Palantir-and-Ministry-of-Economy-of-Ukraine-Sign-Demining-Partnership/

Tuesday Nov 05, 2024


Summary:
In this episode, we examine China's position in the global chip race, particularly for advanced AI chips. We detail China's struggles to produce chips smaller than 7 nanometers (nm) due to export restrictions on crucial lithography machines and the difficulty of catching up with leading manufacturers. We then delve into the different types of AI chips and the companies developing them, highlighting that while China has several companies making AI chips, many rely on foreign technology or are lagging in terms of nm size, indicating a dependency on foreign manufacturers and a disadvantage in the race for cutting-edge AI technology.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
1. What are the major factors hindering China's advancement in the global semiconductor and AI chip production
2. How do China's AI chip makers compare in terms of technology and production capacity to their global competitors?
3. What are the implications of China's current status in the chip war for the global technology landscape and future of artificial intelligence?
Long format:
 Is China winning the chip war?
No. 
Here are the facts:
1. China is producing in fabs (mainly at the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) 7nm chips but not at scale. They are doing nothing smaller than 7nm. The current state of the art is 3nm with Rapidus (Japan) saying it is over 80% complete making its 2nm fab that will produce at scale and then will move on to 1.4nm. 
2. TSMC, Samsung and Japanese fabricators along with the US fabricator have agreed to export bans of chips of various sizes the smallest of which is 5nm and will likely be bans to anything under 7nm soon. 
3. Semiconductor fabrication requires lithography machines to produce semiconductors. Above 7nm involves lithography technology called Deep Ultraviolet (DUV). DUV is made by ASML (Dutch), Nikon (Japan) and Cannon (Japan). China has no domestic DUV lithography machine production. To my knowledge with export licenses, DUVs can still be exported to China. In terms of lithography equipment, 90 nm-process lithography machines made by Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) are the mature domestic product for mass production in China. The best China can do at present is the lithography machine for the 28 nm process.
4. To produce any chip under 7nm you need Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machines or you physically cannot “print” that small on a wafer. Only one company makes EUV. That is ASML of the Netherlands. The Dutch passed a law making it illegal to export EUV machines to China. ASML has agreed to comply. China has zero EUV machines in China. 
5. Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Group (SMEE) is a Chinese state-owned enterprise that has filed a patent for EUV radiation generators and lithography equipment. However, experts say that SMEE still lags behind ASML and would need to overcome many restrictions to catch up.
6. Thanks to the Department of Commerce restrictions and agreement by the Dutch and Japanese, the parts and consumables and design for EUVs cannot be exported to China. 
That’s what leads PZ to say that the Chinese can’t get EUVs (and therefore cannot make under 7nm where it is now), can’t import the finished sub 5nm chips (without breaches or workarounds which will always happen), and can’t get the “stuff” needed to make the EUVs it needs to get below 7nm. 
The only real hope China has is that the Dutch put profits over politics as ASML took a huge valuation hit on October 15 and there is some talk in some quarters to rescind or alter the EIV export ban.
Is China winning the AI production battle?
What makes an AI chip?
AI Chips have parallel processing capabilities. 
While general-purpose chips employ sequential processing, completing one calculation at a time, AI chips harness parallel processing, executing numerous calculations at once.
There are various different type of AI chips. Graphics processing units (GPUs), field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) are all considered AI chips.
GPUs
GPUs are designed to handle graphics and video rendering, and are often used for image classification, autonomous driving, and Safe City. GPUs are good for tasks that can be broken down into smaller components and completed in parallel.
FPGAs
FPGAs are programmable silicon chips that can be configured for specific applications. They are often used for deep learning and big data analysis. FPGAs are flexible and can be reprogrammed to optimize for specific applications, which can reduce power consumption and latency.
ASICs
ASICs are custom-made chips designed for a specific purpose. They are often used for data inference, AI synthesis, and assisted driving. ASICs are optimized for speed, power, and size, but they are expensive and time-consuming to design and manufacture. Once an ASIC is designed, its functionality is fixed
Here is a list of current AI chip makers: https://seo.ai/blog/ai-chip-makers
As we can see above, there are a number of Chinese companies. But here is recent detailed inventory of production. 
 
Of the above chart note the node which is the nm sized chip and the fab. 
The devil is in the details. 
Huawei
A major player in the global chip design market, Huawei is working to develop AI chips locally. Huawei's Ass 910B chip was once considered the most competitive AI GPU designed in China. Huawei's second-generation AI chip, Ascend 920B,which was first seen in Chinese servers in 2022. It was made using TSMC's 7-nm process
SMIC
SMIC is one of China's best hopes for producing advanced AI chips, but it is still one to two generations behind in mature production. SMIC only began large-scale production of 14 nm chips in 2022, and its mature production remains with the 28 nm process, still one to two generations behind.
Baidu
Baidu designs its own chips for AI processes, including the Kunlun chip for servers and autonomous cars. They use Nvidia chips.
Alibaba
Alibaba's T-Head unit developed the Hanguang 800 AI inference chip, which is used to accelerate the recommendation system on its e-commerce platform. They use Nvidia chips. 
Biren Technology
Biren Technology designs a general purpose GPU and has a software development platform to build applications on top of the hardware.
Objectively, China isn’t winning the chip war and is in a corner. And in terms of producing ADVANCED cutting edge AI chips, they are either totally dependent on foreign fabs or they are inferior because they are high nm size platforms or both. 
Sources:
https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-chip
https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/AI-Chips%E2%80%94What-They-Are-and-Why-They-Matter-1.pdf
https://builtin.com/articles/ai-chip
https://forum.huawei.com/enterprise/en/differences-between-cpu-gpu-fpga-and-asic/thread/966389-895?page=1#:~:text=CPU:%20The%20CPU%20processes%20complex,assisted%20driving%2C%20and%20AI%20synthesis
https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/fpga-vs-gpu#:~:text=GPU%20challenges&text=FPGAs%20are%20programmable%20silicon%20chips,applications%20and%20prototyping%20new%20projects
https://www.wevolver.com/article/asic-vs-fpga#:~:text=Long%20Development%20Time:%20The%20ASIC,to%20update%20functionality%20is%20important
https://blog.purestorage.com/purely-educational/gpus-vs-fpgas-whats-the-difference/#:~:text=Choosing%20between%20GPUs%20and%20FPGAs,hardware%20might%20not%20be%20sufficient
https://www.linkedin.com/advice/0/what-key-differences-between-asic-fpga-soc#:~:text=6-,1%20ASIC:%20Application%2DSpecific%20Integrated%20Circuit,%2C%20graphics%20processing%2C%20or%20encryption
https://aws.amazon.com/compare/the-difference-between-gpus-cpus/#:~:text=The%20CPU%20handles%20all%20the,and%20finish%20them%20in%20parallel
https://www.cigionline.org/articles/in-the-global-ai-chips-race-china-is-playing-catch-up/#:~:text=Huawei%20and%20SMIC%20now%20stand,(fifth%2Dgeneration)%20chips
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/chinese-companies-aiming-to-compete-with-nvidia-on-ai-chips.html#:~:text=Alibaba%20and%20Baidu%20both%20buy,Cambricon%20Technologies

Monday Nov 04, 2024

Summary:
In this episode, we discuss the complexities and controversies surrounding time zones and daylight saving time. We explore how time zones have been used for political and economic purposes, citing examples like China's adoption of a single time zone for national unity and Russia's imposition of Moscow time on annexed Ukrainian regions. We also examine the potential economic and energy impacts of daylight saving time, with some arguing that it may not be as beneficial as previously thought. Finally, we highlight the international complexities that arise from differing time zones, particularly in the context of business, travel, and communication.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
1. What are the historical, political, and economic factors that have influenced the adoption and rejection of daylight saving time in different countries?
2. How have time zones been manipulated as tools of political control and national identity by governments around the world?
3. To what extent do time zones, including daylight saving time, impact international trade, travel, and communication, and how can these challenges be reduced?
Long format:
 Geopolitics of time zones
Timezones. They exist. But there is some controversy involved in their existence especially when it comes to local options like day light savings time. There is an alternative which is to switch to universal time or Zulu time. Zulu time is the military name of Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) and Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). 
Zulu time provides a uniform time reference across the globe, eliminating confusion that can arise from time zone differences. This is particularly crucial for international communication and coordination. In aviation and military contexts, Zulu time is used to ensure that all parties have a consistent understanding of timing. Flight schedules, military operations, and navigation rely on precise timing to avoid misunderstandings. Events that involve participants from multiple time zones, such as conferences, sports events, and broadcasts, use Zulu time to synchronize activities and schedules.
Is the US the only country that does daylight savings?
No, the United States is not the only country that observes daylight saving time (DST). In fact within the US not every state participates in DST. In the United States, every state except Hawaii and Arizona observes DST. The Uniform Time Act of 1966 allows states to choose whether to observe DST, but it must be statewide.
Fewer than 40 percent of countries in the world currently apply daylight savings time switches, although more than 140 countries had implemented them at some point.
Here is a chart that shows what countries who changes their clocks. 
 
DST and economic impact
The principal reason for introducing (and extending) daylight saving time (DST) was, and still is, projected energy savings, particularly for electric lighting. However many energy experts and economists dispute its savings in modern times with more efficient lighting. While some historians point to railroad time tables being an original reason some modern historical research seems to refute this. 
Daylight saving time (DST) is considered inefficient by some because it can disrupt sleep, increase energy costs, and make international travel, trade and communications more difficult. Some studies show that DST can increase energy costs. For example, a study in Indiana found that DST increased residential electricity consumption by 1% overall, and up to 4% in the late summer and early fall. 
Different countries change their time on different days, and some poorer countries don't change their time at all, which can make international business and travel more difficult. Airlines estimate that DST costs them $147 million per year. According to the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, 63% of Americans favor eliminating seasonal time changes. A study from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 25% of Americans like the current system of shifting between DST and standard time. 
One study has found that time zone differences are found to reduce bilateral trade between the US and Canada by 11% on average, which amounts to about one-sixth of the international border effect between the US and Canada. 
As one author summed it up:
Benjamin Franklin conceived of it. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle endorsed it. Winston Churchill campaigned for it. Kaiser Wilhelm first employed it. Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt went to war with it, and more recently the United States fought an energy crisis with it.
Does China have only one time zone?
Yes. China has one time zone. It is officially called China Standard Time (CST). It is 8 hours ahead of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC+08:00).
Well…. the most complete answer is the People's Republic of China spans geographically across five different time zones when measured from the Greenwich Mean time or the Universal Coordinated time as the case may be. However, the country observes one time across all the extent of the territory of China.
Why only one zone? Controlling time became part of an official narrative about a China united under the party's rule. Officially, they claim one time zone would allow a national work schedule (important during the times of communal work units), for news to be broadcast at the same time throughout and for communication. 
But China isn’t the only one using time and time zones to control. In January 2024, Russian authorities announced that annexed regions of Ukraine were to switch from Ukrainian time to Moscow time.
During Sri Lanka’s 25-year civil war between the central government and the Tamil Tigers, the government adjusted the country’s time by setting clocks back half an hour. However, in 1996, the Tamil Tigers rejected and did not implement this change in the regions they controlled, creating a situation where Sri Lanka effectively operated in two different time zones at the same time.
Other time anomalies and time rebels exist. When India gained independence from Britain in 1947, it eliminated the separate time zones for Mumbai and Kolkata, unifying the country under a single official time zone.
Nepal, meanwhile, set its time zone to align with the peak of the sacred Gaurishankar Mountain, east of Kathmandu, resulting in a unique quarter-hour time zone, unlike most other nations that base their timekeeping on hourly increments or, less commonly, half-hour increments.
In 2015, North Korea’s government announced a shift in its time zone by setting clocks back by half an hour.
Sources 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/11/04/the-strange-weird-geopolitics-of-time/
https://www.europastar.com/the-watch-files/a-world-watch-tour/1004089853-the-geopolitics-of-world-time.html
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/tesg.12114
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/8/9/conflict-over-the-clock-china-among-countries-where-time-is-political
https://www.statista.com/chart/24473/countries-changing-clock-daylight-savings/#:~:text=Outside%20of%20Europe%20and%20the,Zealand%20and%20parts%20of%20Australia
https://costcontrolassociates.com/blog/the-cost-of-daylight-savings-time/
https://www.csg.org/2024/03/11/is-daylight-saving-time-worth-saving/
https://qz.com/636313/why-america-will-never-get-rid-of-day-light-saving#:~:text=justification%20for%20DST.-,There%20is%20no%20economic%20justification%20for%20DST.,$147%20million%20dollars%20a%20year

Monday Nov 04, 2024


Summary:
In this episode we explore the challenges of creating super robots that can perform human tasks, focusing specifically on the area of computer vision. We rely on Kai Fu-Lee’s book “AI 2040” to explain that computer vision involves teaching computers to "see" not just by capturing images, but by understanding what they see. This process encompasses several levels of complexity, ranging from basic image processing to scene comprehension. We highlight that humans effortlessly apply knowledge of the world to their vision, but teaching this to a computer is a major challenge addressed by innovative technologies like convolutional neural networks.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
1. What are the major challenges in developing robots that can perform complex tasks?
2. How does computer vision contribute to the development of intelligent robots?
3. What are the key differences between human vision and computer vision?
Long format:
One of the most difficult aspects of getting robots to “work” is the interface of dexterity and “seeing” (computer vision). 
Computer vision (CV) is a sub branch of AI that focuses on the problem of teaching computers to see. The word “see” here does not mean just the act of acquiring a video or image, but also making sense of what a computer sees. Computer vision includes a following capabilities, increasing complexity:
Image capturing and processing—use cameras and other sensors to capture real-world 3D scenes in a video. Each video is composed of a sequence of images, and each image is a two-dimensional array of numbers representing the color, where each number is a “pixel.”
Object detection and image segmentation—divide the image into prominent regions and find where the objects are.
Object recognition—recognizes the object (for example, a dog), and also understands the details (German Shepherd, dark brown, and so on).
Object tracking—follows moving objects in consecutive images or video.
Gesture and movement recognition—recognize movements, like a dance move in an Xbox game.
Scene understanding—understands a full scene, including subtle relationships, like a hungry dog looking at a bone.
When we humans “see“ we are actually applying our accumulated knowledge of the world – everything we’ve learned in our lives about perspective, geometry, common sense, and what we have seen previously. These come naturally to us, but are very difficult to teach a computer. This is a quite fine use of AI: the invention of convolutional neural networks (CNN).
Source:
AI 2040 by Kai Fu-Lee

Monday Nov 04, 2024


Summary:
In this episode, we discuss the work entitled “Rethinking Gropolitics” by Jeremy Black. In that book Black examines the similarities between the geopolitical challenges facing the United Kingdom in the early 20th century and the United States today. We discuss how the work “highlights the parallels between Britain's position as a declining global power facing rising competition from countries like Russia, Germany, and the United States, and the US's current situation with China”. Black emphasizes how both countries struggled with balancing their global commitments with domestic political pressures and how their strategic priorities shape their future. We talk about how Black’s theories are different than our own. Where Black suggests that just as the USSR and the US emerged as superpowers following World War II, the world may see the rise of new superpowers in the future as America decoupled like Britain did. We discuss how this differs from our view that the decoupling will result in regional powers and most likely no single superpower or multiple superpowers.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
1. How does the text relate the current geopolitical landscape to the historical example of Britain's transition from global superpower to a more regionally focused power?
2.What are the implications of the author's comparison between the current state of the US and Britain in 1904 for the future of the world order?
3. What is the author's argument about the role of technology in shifting global power dynamics?
Long format:
 A contrary view of geopolitics and deglobalization
I’m reading an interesting book that although I find it interesting, ultimately, I would not recommend. 
It is titled “Rethinking Gropolitics” by Jeremy Black. I don’t recommend it because it covers history that I think all of us are very familiar with. 
He notes that 120 years ago Halford Mackinder gave an important geopolitical talk featuring what he called the “global pivot”. As we all know at the time (1904) Britain was the world’s true one and only superpower with the world’s greatest navy and true global reach and force projection. Mackinder noted that at the dawn of the 20th century, at the time, Britain was becoming more isolationist and seeking to consolidate its position and not expand its influence. At one point he summed the feeling to be at the time that there was no need for Britain to be the school marms of the world settling arguments it had nothing to do with (sounds familiar, eh?)
Further he noted even back in 1904 that this isolationist/consolidating positioning was leading to serious challenges from more than one power: the USA, Russia and Germany. All three he noted were growing and expansionist. 
He noted the change in technology of the time from the primacy of maritime to rail-borne land power and even an audience member noting the new age of air. 
Quoting directly from his work is the following sentiment:
—-start of quote—-
So also in 2024 for the United States and the challenges it confronts, notably from China but also from the very volatility of a global system in which US leadership is under great challenge, as, more generally, is the civilizational model of and from the West. Indeed, China deliberately sets out to contest US international models, seeing the United States’ global liberalism as a challenge to national sovereignty, as well as being self-interested, with China presenting instead the Communist model of “managed socialism.” At the same time, the United States itself is very divided by the question of engagement with the outside world, as well as the nature of prioritization in strategic areas and tasks, for example, competing commitments to Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. This is a prioritization that sees geopolitics in action. In part, the use of geopolitics in this context is an aspect of the debate about prioritization, one that is rhetorical as well as analytical. This then sets the stage for a consideration of the 120 years from Mackinder to now, as well as geopolitics present and geopolitics future. 
There are clear parallels between past British and present US geopolitical issues. Thus, in 1883, William Henry Smith, a Conservative politician, who had been First Lord of the Admiralty in 1877–80, spoke to the House of Commons about “the duties to be discharged by the Navy, and which are of a very varying nature throughout the world, because heavier duties fall upon the Navy of this country than fall upon the Navies of all other countries taken together. We have a large commerce, and practically we have to perform what are called the police duties of the seas, and we have, in consequence, to maintain an ironclad Fleet equal to any emergency.”
This he explained later that year was difficult: “At this moment, ironclads have to be employed in the China and Australian Seas, in the Pacific, on the Coast of North America, and in the West Indies. Our Fleet is scattered in a manner in which the Fleet of no other power can be scattered; and while it is discharging duties in three or four different seas, if, unfortunately, we should be engaged in a war, Foreign Powers might be able to concentrate their forces against our Navy.” Comparable issues were to face Britain and the United States as leading powers.
——end quote—-
Well if this analogy holds true, would it not be the case that instead of a series of decentralized regional powers that many of us including myself believe will happen, that new superpowers will arise as the USSR and the USA did after WWII? Dunno. 
Interesting to always ponder the other side, right?

Friday Nov 01, 2024


Summary:
North Korea successfully launched a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 31, 2024. Happy Holloween! This marks a significant advancement in the country's missile program. The missile traveled for 86 minutes, reaching an altitude of over 7,000 kilometers, putting the entire continental United States within its potential range. While experts believe North Korea hasn't yet achieved a fully operational nuclear-armed missile capable of striking the U.S., this test is a crucial step towards that goal and could be timed to influence the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
 
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
What is the significance of North Korea's latest ICBM test?
How might this test impact regional and global security?
What are the potential implications of this test for the US?
 
Long format:
 North Korea launches its furthest distance ICBM test
North Korea has completed preparations to test an ICBM-class missile, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Wednesday October 30, 2024, citing the South Korean military, with an intended launch possibly timed to coincide with next week's U.S. presidential election. 
The launch happened today, October 31, 2024. The reports claim that the missile’s flight duration of 86 minutes and its maximum altitude of more than 7,000 kilometers (4,350 miles) and flew over 1000 kilometers exceeding past tests. This was a high angle launch not a standard trajectory launch as such this test cannot examine a missile’s reentry vehicle technology. That is a distance that puts anywhere in the mainland United States within range.
Many foreign experts believe the country has yet to acquire a functioning nuclear-armed missile that can strike the U.S. mainland but this is a step towards that ultimate goal.
 
 
Sources:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2024/dprk-241030-rfa03.htm
 
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-conducts-longest-icbm-test-amid-storm-over-troop-deployment-russia-2024-10-31/
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/31/north-korea-launches-a-new-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-designed-to-threaten-us.html

Friday Nov 01, 2024


Summary:
In this episode, we highlight the alarming prevalence of sexual violence against women in the Sahel region, particularly in Sudan. We detail the widespread use of rape as a weapon of war by way of example of the complaints against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group in Sudan. We cite numerous reports of gang rapes and other abuses, and even a mass suicide by women fearing rape during an attack. We point to the lack of international attention to this issue and call for action to address the rampant gender-based violence in the Sahel.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
How does the RSF's history and actions contribute to the crisis of violence against women in Sudan and the Sahel?
What are the broader societal and political factors that contribute to the vulnerability of women in Sudan and the Sahel?
What are the long-term consequences of the current situation for women and the broader stability of Sudan and the Sahel?
Long format:
 Reports of over 100 women commit mass suicide in Sudan's Al Jazirah
The Arab Spring all began with one man, Mohamed Bouazizi, and his suicide by self-immolation. He was a simple street vendor with no political power or background. His self-immolation was in response to the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation inflicted on him by a municipal official and their aides.
The treatment of women in the Sahel region is particularly appalling with little public or international coverage. Now we have this report of 100 women or more committing suicide in one village rather than face the potential of rape when their village was attacked by the RSF. This has yet to be independently verified, but regardless of the truthfulness of these reports is this enough to bring attention to the issue?
By all accounts, women in the Sahel face many challenges, including gender-based violence, limited access to education, and restricted participation in civic life. Women in the Sahel experience gender-based violence, including forced marriages, physical and sexual violence, and sexual exploitation. Rape is not uncommon. In fact, random gang rape is not infrequent. This is particularly so for those of a Masalt ethnicity. Masalit are generally darker-skinned non-Arabs.
One of the groups frequently blamed for abuse and rape against women is the RSF. The RSF is a paramilitary group in Sudan. Sometimes they are referred to as the Janjaweed militia. They fought in the Darfur region in the 2000s. The International Criminal Court prosecutors have accused their commanders of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Since 2017, the RSF has been operating under the color of law as the Sudanese government has granted them the status of “regular force.” In a 2019 coup, the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as “Hemedti”, or “Little Mohamad” was installed as vice chairman of the military-civilian council that would govern Sudan. And on the eve of democratic elections, the RSF along with others were involved in yet another coup with the army stopping the elections. The RSF is institutionalized in the Sudanese government.
The random violent gang rapes and other abuses are not just limited to Sudan and the RSF. Reports are pervasive throughout the Sahel leading some human rights groups have said that rape in the Sahel has become an acceptable weapon of war. Sad.
Sources:
https://www.albawaba.com/node/over-100-women-commit-mass-suicide-1591038
https://twitter.com/KushiteDictator/status/1849918397322072335?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1849918397322072335%7Ctwgr%5E651c1b39f921e0b625e8fe7e112251e9bcf73f8a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.albawaba.com%2Fnode%2Fover-100-women-commit-mass-suicide-1591038
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9Voctv1u-o
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xpqvz0e88o
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/28/nx-s1-5167024/hundreds-of-people-in-sudan-have-been-killed-in-a-surge-of-violence-in-the-past-week
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/191893/Gender%20inequality%20and%20state%20fragility%20in%20the%20Sahel.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/aug/29/women-in-sudan-facing-a-tragedy-of-sexual-violence-as-cases-rise
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/16/sudan-unrest-what-is-the-rapid-support-forces
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/sudan-politics-sexual-violence/
https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/27/sudan-rape-weapon-war#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20pattern%2C%20scale%2C%20and,in%20more%20than%2090%20countries

EP51: Is AI all hype?

Thursday Oct 31, 2024

Thursday Oct 31, 2024


Summary:
We discuss the limitations of artificial intelligence (AI), specifically focusing on its inability to replicate human creativity, empathy, and dexterity. We argue that while AI is useful for specific tasks, its reliance on narrowly defined objective functions makes it unsuitable for activities requiring genuine creativity, emotional intelligence, or complex physical manipulation. We also criticizes the tendency to overhype AI's capabilities, emphasizing the importance of separating scientific fact from media sensationalism and understanding the limitations of current AI technology.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
What are the main limitations of current AI technology, and what are the potential consequences of these limitations?
How does AI technology impact human creativity, and what are the future implications for different types of jobs?
How do current media portrayals and public perceptions of AI influence the development and acceptance of AI technology?
Long format:
 Is AI “all hype”?
I was on a forum where a contributor was in essence arguing that AI is all fanboy hype and would never amount to anything and is a big old bubble ready to burst.
He quoted an article that is an interpretation of the actual peer reviewed study with quotes from the primary author. Here is the actual peer reviewed article:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.03703
Their own conclusion quoted verbatim is:
"Through this work, we sought to understand the impact of LLMs
on human creativity. We conducted two parallel experiments on
divergent and convergent thinking, two key components of creative
thinking. Taken together, these experiments shed light on the complex relationship between human creativity and LLM assistance,
suggesting that while AI can augment creativity, the mode of assistance matters greatly and can shape long-term creative abilities.
In closing, we hope this work offers a template to experimentally
evaluate the impact of generative AI on human cognition and creativity."
The authors of the study clearly see a place for AI (not that it is all hype) but warns that if relied upon too much that overall creativity may suffer. And that is an interesting thought.
——
I am not here to defend AI or say that even if you don't like it, it cannot be fairly dismissed as "all hype" as time will prove that AI is here, it is useful and it will change things. AI will change things for the better and for the worse like all tools. Fire has good and bad. Cooks food. Burns down house.
----
I don't know of anyone who is a true thought leader in AI that says that AI will supplant human creativity. In fact, quite the opposite. When you look at all of the literature that is in the mainstream and is at a high level, they all speak to the fact that AI will not ever be good at creativity. Even the mainstream super proponents of AI clearly think AI cannot create, conceptualize, or plan strategically. While AI is great at optimizing for a narrow objective function (see definition below and discussion for narrow objective function), it is unable to choose its own goals or to think creatively. Nor can AI think across domains or apply common sense. And it most likely never will.
So yes relying on AI to be creative is like relying on a hammer to be a great screwdriver. It is not its intended function or purpose. Every tool has a use. AI’s use is not in creativity and no one I have read who is a subject matter expert in AI says that it is.

In terms of creativity. Yes, jobs that require vision, creativity, outside of the box thinking and “seeing around a corner” are most likely very safe from AI supplanting them. The jobs most at risk of automation by AI tend to be routine and entry-level jobs. Another words the poor will become poorer. AI will also displace increasingly complex types of blue collar work. Warehouse pickers will be replaced and displaced. Kai Fu Lee theorizes that about 40% of jobs could be accomplished mostly by AI and automation technologies by 2033.
What can’t AI do well?
Creativity: AI cannot create, conceptualize, or plan strategically. While AI is great at optimizing for a narrow objective function, it is unable to choose its own goals or to think creatively. Nor can AI think across domains or apply common sense.
Empathy: AI cannot feel or interact with feelings like empathy and compassion. Therefore, AI cannot make another person feel understood or care for. Even if AI improves in this area, it will be extremely difficult to get the technology to a place where humans feel comfortable interacting with robots in situations that call for care and empathy, or what we call “human touch services“.
Dexterity: AI and robotics cannot accomplish complex physical work that requires dexterity or precise hand – eye coordination. AI can’t deal with unknown and unstructured spaces, especially ones that it hasn’t observed before.
Jobs that are asocial and routine, such as insurance adjusters, are likely to be taken over in their entirety by AI. For jobs that are highly social but routine, humans and AI would work together, each contributing expertise. For jobs that are creative but asocial, human creativity will be amplified by AI tools. Finally the jobs that require both creativity and social skills are where humans will shine and will survive past the AI revolution. Please see the charts provided from Kai-Fu Lee’s books.
-----
There are a lot of limitations of AI. The chief of which is the difficulty of defining the appropriate objective function so that a most appropriate outcome of LLM comes about. The possibility for abuse in AI has to do with the simplicity of the objective function, and the danger from single-mindedly optimizing to the single objective function. If the objective function is defined very narrowly, then all other considerations will be discarded and trying to achieve that single-minded objective function.
Further, we humans have a good grasp of what we know and what we don’t know, GPT does not. GPT is also weak in causal reasoning, abstract, thinking, explanatory statements, common sense, and intentional creativity.
And I agree with Kai-Fu Lee when he writes: "People often rely on three sources to learn about AI: science fiction, news, and influential people. Science Fiction books and TV shows, people see depictions of robots that want to control or outsmart humans, and super intelligence turned to evil. Media reports tend to focus on negative, outlying examples rather than quotidian incremental advances: an autonomous vehicle killing a single pedestrian, technology companies, using AI to influence elections, and people using AI to disseminate misinformation in deep fakes. Relying on “thought leaders” ought to be the best option , but unfortunately, most who claim the title are experts in business, physics, or politics, not AI technology. The predictions often lack scientific rigor. What makes things worse is that journalist tend to quote the leaders out of context to attract eyeballs."

Wednesday Oct 30, 2024


Summary:
In this episode, we examine the substantial financial and societal costs of the "War on Terror" initiated following the 9/11 attacks. We explore the financial burden of these conflicts on the U.S. budget, including the expenditures on military operations, veterans' benefits, and reconstruction efforts. We also discuss the influence of the military-industrial complex, highlighting the role of private companies in shaping defense policy and benefiting from these ongoing wars. Additionally, we shed light on the increasing adoption of advanced technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, within the military and the potential ethical and societal implications of this integration.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
How has the War on Terror impacted the US military budget and the technology it employs?
What are the key players and their roles in the evolution of the US military-industrial complex?
How are emerging technologies, specifically artificial intelligence, influencing modern warfare?
Long format:
America’s Addiction to War: The Military-Industrial Complex in the Age of Big Tech
TL;DR
America’s heavy military involvement abroad is driven less by strategic necessity than by a deeply entrenched military-industrial complex (MIC) increasingly tied to Big Tech. While a robust military is crucial, the United States tends to reflexively engage in conflicts, often without considering true national security stakes. The MIC—made up of defense contractors, policymakers, and, now, Big Tech—profits from ongoing warfare and has grown even stronger through mergers, political lobbying, and partnerships with companies like Amazon, Google, and Palantir. This alliance extends the MIC’s reach, funding wars, developing advanced tech for conflict, and making the U.S. more interventionist.
Big Tech’s entry into the MIC has added new dimensions like AI-driven targeting, cloud computing, autonomous systems, and cybersecurity, reshaping military strategies and making engagement easier and cheaper. The result: America’s dependence on war has morphed into an economic and technological reliance, creating incentives for constant conflict. To shift away, the U.S. must implement stricter Congressional controls, and question each military involvement more rigorously.
INTRODUCTION AND THESIS
We (the United States) are ADDICTED to war. Absolutely addicted. The 20+ year GWOT and Iraq are exhibits A and B. But it’s not just the war for war’s sake that is our addiction. It’s the military-industrial spending and the logistics providing. This is especially so in the area of the non-direct warfare functions related to deployment of weapons, troops or materials. Some have argued that the war in the Ukraine is yet another iteration and presentation of this addiction.
America’s vast military footprint is not solely a result of strategic interests or a commitment to global security. Instead, a powerful and increasingly entrenched military-industrial complex (MIC) sustains, and arguably drives, the nation’s seemingly endless cycle of warfare.
I am not a "peacenik," nor do I advocate for defunding the military. In fact, I firmly believe in the importance of a strong, capable military, especially in today’s post-globalization landscape where geopolitical threats are evolving rapidly. A well-resourced and prepared military is crucial to protect national interests and ensure security at home and abroad. However, our frequent and almost reflexive response to deploy troops or send military aid to conflicts worldwide—often without critical examination of their true strategic importance—raises important questions about how we prioritize and approach global engagement. We must evaluate whether every conflict justifies American military involvement or if some of these entanglements detract from our ability to respond effectively to challenges that genuinely threaten our national security.
The GWOT cost 8,000,000,000,000 ($8T). There are no precise figures but it is estimated that well over half of that money was for non-direct warfare functions such as logistics, maintenance, transportation, computer support, training, and other similar types of required capabilities and related activities such as outsourcing food preparation, outsourcing laundry, outsourcing telecommunications back home for troops, bringing along a McDonald’s and/or Burger King, FOB construction, general construction and so on.
The military industrial complex (MIC) in this country is no joke. As former Supreme Allied commander and later US President Dwight D Eisenhower warned us: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” (January 17, 1961, in this farewell address)
But the MIC is bigger and more entrenched now than in 1961 with a new dimension added to it—BIG TECH. Big tech has put the MIC on steroids.
In addition there has been a massive consolidation of MIC companies through merger and acquisitions. The rise of mega-firms has led to fewer defense contractors, with five giants now dominating Pentagon contracts.
The MIC also wields enormous influence through political lobbying, spending over $247 million recently, with 820 lobbyists engaging Congress, and through funding foreign policy think tanks that shape pro-defense industry narratives.
The MIC has become more pervasive, more profitable, and more influential, fueled by the burgeoning partnership between traditional defense contractors and Silicon Valley’s tech giants. This paper explores America’s deep-seated dependence on the MIC, examining how Big Tech’s integration into the defense sector has cemented this reliance, expanded it technologically, and ultimately made the MIC harder to disentangle from U.S. foreign policy and economic imperatives.
I. The Foundations of the Military-Industrial Complex: From Cold War to Endless Conflict
Eisenhower’s farewell address in 1961 cautioned against the “unwarranted influence” of the military-industrial complex, a network of defense contractors, military officials, and policymakers with a vested interest in sustaining military budgets and global conflicts. During the Cold War, this alliance focused on countering the Soviet threat, producing the largest, most advanced military in history. Yet, after the Cold War ended, the MIC did not wither. Instead, it adapted, supporting wars in the Middle East, the war on terror, and an ever-growing range of international conflicts. President Biden recently framed the U.S. as the “arsenal of democracy” amid conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, echoing Roosevelt’s WWII call for American military support. By keeping America in a state of perpetual conflict, the MIC has ensured that military spending, political support for foreign intervention, and the demand for new weapons systems remain high.
Today, the United States controls a staggering 45% of the global arms market, with arms manufacturers like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman generating billions from foreign arms sales. According to recent figures, wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and the broader Middle East have increased demand for U.S.-produced weaponry, sustaining profits for contractors while generating windfalls for investors and corporate executives. President Biden himself has praised the arms industry as an “arsenal of democracy,” depicting military production as a patriotic pursuit. Yet, this narrative obscures the MIC’s profit-driven motives, which are deeply intertwined with the persistence of international conflict.
II. The Expansion of the MIC: Big Tech Joins the Fray
In recent years, Silicon Valley has added a new dimension to the MIC, as tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Palantir secured massive Department of Defense (DoD) contracts. These companies provide the military with cutting-edge capabilities, including artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data analytics, which have become essential for modern warfare. The integration of Big Tech into the defense ecosystem reflects a shift toward “data-driven warfare,” which relies on AI-enabled drones, autonomous systems, and cloud-based intelligence processing to identify and target threats.
This Big Tech-MIC collaboration is a significant evolution from the Cold War model, which focused on traditional weaponry. Today, military leaders increasingly view AI and data processing as indispensable tools, and Silicon Valley’s powerful tech giants have proven to be eager suppliers. Contracts like the DoD’s $9 billion Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability (JWCC) initiative, awarded to Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Microsoft, signal that tech companies are not merely service providers but are now core players in the MIC. Despite employee protests against projects like Google’s Project Maven or Amazon’s Project Nimbus, Big Tech firms have continued to pursue defense contracts, positioning themselves as crucial partners in America’s military future.
Big Tech has significantly fueled and expanded the military-industrial complex (MIC) by embedding itself into the defense sector and reshaping military operations with advanced technology. Historically, the MIC was dominated by traditional defense contractors focused on manufacturing conventional weapons systems—tanks, jets, missiles. Today, companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Palantir, and Anduril have introduced new capabilities, including artificial intelligence, big data analytics, cloud computing, and autonomous systems. These innovations have become integral to modern warfare, driving a new era of high-tech military operations and dramatically expanding the MIC’s influence, reach, and profitability.
1. AI and Data Analytics: Enhancing Targeting and Surveillance
Big Tech’s AI and data analytics tools have transformed how the military processes and utilizes intelligence. Companies like Palantir provide advanced data integration and analysis, allowing the military to process massive volumes of data for more precise and efficient targeting, pattern recognition, and threat prediction. These AI-driven capabilities are now central to surveillance and reconnaissance operations, making them critical in both domestic security and foreign conflicts.
For example, Google’s controversial involvement in Project Maven, which provided AI to analyze drone surveillance footage, marked a watershed moment in Big Tech’s integration with the MIC. Although Google employees protested the project, arguing it turned civilian tech into tools of war, the project underscored how AI could significantly enhance military efficiency and effectiveness. By partnering with tech firms, the military can leverage AI to automate target identification and threat assessments, ultimately lowering the threshold for deployment and engagement in overseas conflicts.
2. Cloud Computing: The Backbone of Modern Military Operations
Cloud computing has become a cornerstone for military infrastructure, supporting secure, scalable, and centralized data storage and processing. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have all secured major contracts with the Department of Defense to provide cloud services that enable rapid data access and support for real-time operations. The Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability (JWCC), a $9 billion contract, exemplifies Big Tech’s critical role in modern military strategy. This initiative provides cloud services across Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, enabling the military to operate across dispersed locations with better data integration, intelligence sharing, and mission coordination.
Cloud computing allows the military to streamline and unify its operations, making it more agile and capable of coordinating complex, data-heavy missions worldwide. It also supports increasingly autonomous warfare by serving as the foundation for real-time data processing required for AI-driven systems like drones and robotic weaponry. In short, cloud computing has not only become essential to military readiness but also enables a more continuous, “always on” operational posture that feeds the MIC’s expansion.
3. Autonomous Systems and Robotics: Redefining Warfare
Big Tech’s advancements in autonomous systems and robotics have also redefined the MIC by moving beyond traditional hardware to include autonomous weapons and surveillance platforms. Defense-oriented startups like Anduril Industries specialize in autonomous technologies, including drones and surveillance systems that do not require human pilots or operators. Anduril’s Lattice AI platform, for example, integrates sensors, drones, and other autonomous systems to detect and track targets autonomously, a capability that reduces reliance on human personnel while expanding military reach.
This shift towards autonomy has profound implications. Autonomous drones and robotic systems allow for persistent surveillance and engagement capabilities without the immediate need for human involvement. This reduces costs and logistical constraints, enabling the U.S. to engage in more operations with fewer personnel—a dynamic that amplifies America’s capacity for military action. By facilitating persistent presence without putting troops on the ground, Big Tech has lowered the perceived costs of military engagements, making intervention more feasible and potentially increasing the frequency and scope of U.S. involvement abroad.
4. Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare: Expanding the Digital Battlefield
The MIC has increasingly expanded into cyberspace, with Big Tech playing a leading role in cyber defense and cyber warfare capabilities. Microsoft and Google provide the military with advanced cybersecurity solutions to protect critical infrastructure, secure communications, and defend against cyber threats. In addition, these companies often work closely with U.S. Cyber Command to defend against foreign cyber-attacks and develop offensive cyber capabilities.
The integration of Big Tech’s cybersecurity tools into the MIC extends the battlefield into the digital realm, creating new opportunities for conflict that require constant surveillance and a rapid response capability. This extension of military activity into cyberspace has broadened the MIC’s domain, reinforcing the need for high-tech solutions and generating a steady flow of government contracts for cybersecurity and cyber intelligence tools. In turn, this expands the MIC’s influence and further intertwines Big Tech with national defense objectives.
5. Global Surveillance Infrastructure: Supporting U.S. Geopolitical Influence
Through partnerships with the intelligence community and military, Big Tech has helped create a global surveillance infrastructure that enhances the U.S. ability to monitor geopolitical threats. Companies like Amazon and Palantir provide platforms for the collection, storage, and analysis of vast amounts of intelligence data. For instance, Palantir’s software is widely used by the CIA, FBI, and military to analyze surveillance data and generate actionable intelligence.
This global surveillance network enables the U.S. to maintain a dominant position in intelligence-gathering, a capability that reinforces its geopolitical influence. By supporting extensive intelligence operations, Big Tech has effectively broadened the scope and ambition of U.S. foreign policy, facilitating a more interventionist stance and enabling the MIC to maintain an active presence across multiple global regions. This infrastructure reinforces the MIC’s entrenchment, as maintaining and expanding surveillance networks creates a constant demand for high-tech solutions and supports a continuous funding stream.
6. Lobbying Power and Political Influence: Reshaping Defense Policy
In addition to providing technological infrastructure, Big Tech also wields significant lobbying power in Washington, which it uses to influence defense policies and secure lucrative contracts. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, for example, have established powerful lobbying teams that advocate for increased defense spending on technology and less restrictive regulations on military contracts. This lobbying influence allows Big Tech to shape defense policy to ensure favorable terms and maintain a steady flow of government contracts.
Furthermore, Big Tech’s role as a defense contractor has blurred the line between private enterprise and public policy, leading to the “revolving door” phenomenon, where executives and officials move between industry and government roles. This convergence of corporate and government interests has resulted in policies that prioritize defense funding for advanced technology and downplay ethical concerns or restrictions on foreign arms sales, ultimately entrenching Big Tech within the MIC.
Big Tech=Big Money
Big Tech’s entry into the MIC has transformed the landscape of American military operations, moving the MIC beyond traditional weaponry and expanding its reach into high-tech domains. From AI-driven surveillance and autonomous systems to cyber warfare and cloud-based intelligence, Silicon Valley’s technologies have become indispensable to the modern military. As a result, Big Tech has not only fueled the MIC’s growth but has entrenched it in new, harder-to-regulate areas of defense.
Most importantly, this expansion has lowered the barriers to military engagement, enabling a more interventionist U.S. foreign policy and creating a constant demand for high-tech solutions that fuel both profits and conflict. The involvement of Big Tech has also made the MIC more politically powerful and harder to reform, as the influence of these companies extends deep into defense policy, government contracts, and military decision-making. Consequently, Big Tech’s integration into the MIC has not only bolstered America’s military capabilities but has solidified a structure that makes reducing America’s dependence on warfare far more challenging.
III. How the MIC Shapes Foreign Policy: Arms Exports and Congressional Influence
The influence of the MIC extends into U.S. foreign policy, where it shapes decisions about where to sell arms, whom to support in conflicts, and how long to maintain military engagements. U.S.-supplied arms fuel conflicts in dozens of countries, from Saudi Arabia to Ukraine. For example, American weapons have been central to Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, which has led to hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties and a prolonged humanitarian crisis. Though Congress occasionally attempts to restrict arms sales to human rights violators, the MIC’s influence within Washington usually ensures that these efforts fail. Companies like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin actively lobby to preserve their lucrative deals, leveraging their status as job providers and patriots.
The MIC’s ability to influence Congress is significant. Recent efforts by arms companies to reduce regulatory scrutiny over arms sales highlight how deeply they are embedded in the policymaking process. The Foreign Military Sales program, which expedites weapons transfers to foreign governments, has essentially turned the Pentagon into an international arms broker for U.S. corporations. To make matters worse, current law requires a veto-proof majority to block arms sales, which, given the millions of dollars in campaign contributions from defense firms, has never been achieved. To rein in this unrestrained influence, some suggest reversing this rule to require Congressional approval before sales can proceed, making it more difficult for the MIC to sell arms indiscriminately.
IV. The New Drivers of War: Big Tech and the Militarization of Technology
The involvement of Big Tech has added new pressures for continuous conflict. Silicon Valley thrives on constant innovation and the drive for increased efficiency and scalability. Translated to the defense sector, these impulses result in a constant demand for newer, more advanced, and more automated weapons systems. This cycle of technological innovation pushes the MIC toward creating increasingly advanced forms of warfare, making it difficult to dial back or restrain military spending. With Big Tech involved, the defense sector is incentivized not only to develop and deploy more weapons but to make them more sophisticated, autonomous, and integrated into surveillance networks.
Furthermore, Big Tech’s involvement in the MIC brings immense political and economic clout to the defense sector. Tech CEOs like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt advocate for expanded U.S. defense initiatives, arguing that technological superiority is essential for national security. This alignment between tech leaders and military officials effectively merges the goals of Silicon Valley with those of the defense industry, creating a powerful alliance that propels the U.S. toward continuous military expansion.
V. Breaking the Cycle: Toward a New Approach to National Security
The entrenchment of Big Tech within the MIC has made it harder than ever to reduce military spending to non-essential conflicts or shift away from a reliance on arms exports and military interventions wherever they may be. However, various reforms could help reduce America’s dependence on the MIC and redirect resources toward diplomacy and peaceful engagement.
One possible approach would be to implement stricter Congressional oversight of arms sales, requiring a majority vote for each proposed sale. Increased transparency around defense contracts, particularly with tech firms, would also help reveal the true costs and ethical implications of these partnerships.
Moreover, a greater emphasis on diplomacy and non-military solutions could help counter the impulse to view every geopolitical challenge through a military lens.
Conclusion/Opinion
The partnership between Big Tech and the traditional MIC has created a formidable entity that profits from and promotes continuous military engagement. This alliance ensures that both defense contractors and tech firms have a vested interest in sustaining conflicts, fueling a cycle of military intervention that undermines our true strategic best interests and diverts public resources from critical civilian needs. Reversing this trend will require a concerted effort to curb the influence of the MIC, sitting back and questioning whether or not the US truly has to become involved in a conflict and otherwise be more prudent in our deployment of precious resources. America’s addiction to war is no longer just a matter of defense policy—it is an economic and technological dependency that endangers both the nation and perhaps the world. In reasserting democratic control over the MIC, the United States has the opportunity to redefine its role in the world, not as an arsenal of democracy but as a champion of pragmatism. We do not need to police the world.
Sources:
https://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_afghanwarxcost.htm
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/the-staggering-cost-of-the-never-ending-global-war-on-terror
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/military-industrial-complex-defense/
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2023/2024/Silicon%20Valley%20MIC.pdf
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3239378/department-of-defense-announces-joint-warfighting-cloud-capability-procurement/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-02-29/inside-project-maven-the-us-military-s-ai-project
https://www.hacc.mil/Portfolio/JWCC/
https://www.oracle.com/government/federal/jwcc/
https://www.anduril.com/article/anduril-s-lattice-a-trusted-dual-use-commercial-and-military-platform-for-public-safety-security/

Wednesday Oct 30, 2024

Summary:
 
In this episode, we explore the potential consequences of the Dutch government's export controls on ASML, the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips. While these controls were intended to hinder China's progress in the chip industry, they have significantly impacted ASML's revenue, leading to concerns that they may be counterproductive. We highlight the intricate relationship between technology, politics, and economics in the global chip market, where the quest for dominance is intertwined with geopolitical considerations.
 
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
 
What are the political and economic implications of the US CHIPS Act and its impact on global semiconductor manufacturing?
How does the current geopolitical landscape influence the future of semiconductor production and the global technology race?
What are the potential consequences of the Dutch government's export controls on ASML's lithography equipment for both China and the global semiconductor industry?
 
 
 
Long format:
 
 Is a key part of the goal of the CHIPS act showing cracks?
 
Maybe. 
 
Here’s why:
 
BACKGROUND
Oversimplified, the US CHIPS Act was passed specifically with one main goal in mind, the wrestle back from the world our domestic ability to make start of the art semiconductor chips that will be a major part of the future economy and the key component of AI. This is part of the US’s decoupling and reshoring aims to reduce and return to America manufacturing and reduce our reliance on speed out supply chains (read as get us out of dependence of China).
 
It has long been my position that the person who wins the chip battle and the one who wins the race for AI will be the top of the global value chain. 
 
Concurrent with the passage of the CHIPS Act which sought to fund the decoupling and restoring by a combination of unprecedentedly large direct taxpayer infusions of cash and also even larger tax credits, the US Commerce Department issued an exceptionally broad set of prohibitions on exports to China of semiconductor chips and other high-tech equipment.
 
The US was all in to trying to ban (or really delay) the tech that is necessary for chip design, fabrication and use from China. 
 
This is where it gets interesting. The single most vulnerable point of pressure to forever stop China from getting to the top of the chip race is in lithography. 
 
 
LITHOGRAPHY
 
Very much oversimplified, Lithography is a process that transfers circuit patterns onto a silicon wafer to create semiconductor devices like microchips and integrated circuits. The lithography process requires precise alignment and high-resolution lenses to create intricate circuit patterns. Different types of lithography systems are used for different layers of the wafer.
 
In semiconductor manufacturing, lithography is like high-precision "printing" for tiny circuits on a silicon wafer, which will eventually become a chip. Here's how it works in basic terms:
Coating: First, the silicon wafer is coated with a light-sensitive material called photoresist.
Patterning: A laser or light source shines through a "mask" or "reticle" that has the desired circuit pattern. This projects the pattern onto the wafer, similar to how a slide projector displays an image on a wall.
Developing: The light changes the chemical structure of the photoresist where it hits, so after exposure, the wafer is developed to reveal the pattern in the photoresist layer.
Etching: Finally, the exposed or protected areas (depending on the type of photoresist) are etched away, leaving a precise, tiny pattern on the silicon wafer.
This process is repeated multiple times, adding layers until the full circuit structure is built up, with each layer helping to create the complex paths and components that make the chip work.
 
ASML
There is only one company in the world that makes the highest level of lithography devices that must be used to make the state of the art semiconductor chips: ASML.
 
ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) is a Dutch multinational corporation that designs and manufactures lithography machines used to make computer chips:
 
ASML is a leading supplier of lithography technology to the semiconductor industry. Their machines use light to expose circuit patterns onto a semiconductor wafer, a process called photolithography. This allows chipmakers to increase the number of transistors on a silicon area, which results in faster, more powerful, and more energy efficient chips.
 
What they make
ASML's products include: 
Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems: ASML is the only company that makes EUV lithography machines, which are used to print the most advanced microchips. EUV lithography uses a short wavelength of light to print complex designs on microchips. ASML's EUV systems include the EXE systems, which have a numerical aperture (NA) of 0.55 and provide higher contrast. 
DUV lithography systems: ASML also makes DUV lithography systems. 
Refurbished systems: ASML refurbishes classic lithography systems, such as the PAS 5500 and TWINSCAN
 
You can only make 5nm chips or lower with EUV machines. You cannot use DUV machines other than get under 7nm. Commercially China makes 7nm chips right now. The state of the art is 3nm chips. However Rapidus (Japan) has announced that their 2nm commercial scale fab center is about 80% and that they will be tooling for 1.4nm chips shortly thereafter.
 
Again, it must be emphasized that currently only ASML makes EUV lithography systems.
 
The Dutch government January 2024 seemed to agree banning ASML from doing a lot of its preferred business in China.
 
The solution to stopping or delaying China in the chip war was simple. ASML doesn’t sell to China. Pats on the back and roll out the Mission Accomplished sign right?
 
October 15, 2024 CHANGES EVERYTHING
 
ASML accidentally released its third-quarter results a day early in error. And it wasn’t pretty. The company said it expects 2025 net sales of 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion), in the lower half of a range it had previously provided. Net bookings for the September quarter were 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said — well below the 5.6 billion euro LSEG consensus estimate. ASML’s share plunge saw the critical semiconductor firm lose 49.2 billion euros ($53.6 billion) in market capitalization in a single day. A lot of analysts blamed the Dutch export ban for the ASML stock drop and loss in valuation.
 
OUTCOME
 
According to news reports today (October 29, 2024) the Netherlands are rethinking the wisdom of export controls on China given that their best source of future relevancy in the semiconductor world took a very big hit.
 
Will money beat out politics? Time will tell. 
 
Sources:https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file
 
https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/about-bis/newsroom/2082
 
https://www.asml.com/en/company/about-asml#:~:text=ASML%20is%20one%20of%20the,essential%20component%20in%20chip%20manufacturing
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html
 
https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems
 
https://www.asml.com/en/news/stories/2022/busting-asml-myths#:~:text=ASML%20is%20the%20only%20company,cargo%20planes%20and%2020%20trucks.&text=ASML%20system%20integration%20engineers%20work%20on%20an%20EUV%20lithography%20system
 
https://ttconsultants.com/advancing-microchip-technology-the-role-of-extreme-ultraviolet-lithography-euvl/
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hit-hard-dutch-export-093000191.html#:~:text=ASML%20is%20barred%20from%20shipping,due%20to%20a%20heavy%20backlog.&text=Copyright%20(c)%202024.,All%20rights%20reserved
 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/01/02/dutch-government-blocks-exports-of-asmls-chip-making-machines-to-china/#:~:text=Tangent,former%20President%20Donald%20Trump's%20administration
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-hit-hard-dutch-export-093000191.html#:~:text=ASML%20is%20barred%20from%20shipping,due%20to%20a%20heavy%20backlog.&text=Copyright%20(c)%202024.,All%20rights%20reserved
 
https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3278535/china-hit-hard-new-dutch-export-controls-asml-chip-making-equipment#:~:text=New%20restrictions%20announced%20by%20the,many%20semiconductor%20plants%20in%20China&text=Mainland%20semiconductor%20factories%20could%20face,citing%20a%20Dutch%20government%20statement
 
https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/the-fab-4-allies-are-pushing-back-on-us-export-controls-on-china/
 
https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/21/asml_setbacks/#:~:text=Despite%20its%20critical%20role%20in,in%20years%20%E2%80%93%20click%20to%20enlarge

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